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El crecimiento del gasto del gobierno en Colombia: Una revisión empírica trimestral desde 1995 hasta 2017 de la hipótesis de Wagner

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  • Juan Pablo Iglesias Ruano

Abstract

Con base en los datos trimestrales de Colombia para el período de 1995 a 2017, se busca efectuar una revisión empírica actualizada sobre la relación entre el crecimiento del gasto del gobierno y el crecimiento de la economía colombiana, para probar que el enfoque de la hipótesis de Wagner es válido al explicar el crecimiento del tamano del gobierno colombiano. Esta revisión empírica se llevará a cabo, a través de la metodología de cointegración presentada en el trabajo de Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., y Smith, R. J. (2001), a partir de modelos Autorregresivos de Distribución de Rezagos (ARDL por sus siglas en ingles). Los resultados indican que la hipótesis de Wagner es aceptada, esto implica que la relación positiva entre ambas variables se ha mantenido estable a través de seis periodos presidenciales en Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Iglesias Ruano, 2018. "El crecimiento del gasto del gobierno en Colombia: Una revisión empírica trimestral desde 1995 hasta 2017 de la hipótesis de Wagner," Vniversitas Económica 16441, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000416:016441
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    Keywords

    Política Fiscal; Finanzas Públicas; Ley de Wagner; Gasto del Gobierno Nacional Central; CrecimientoEconómico; Técnicas de Cointegración a través de Modelos ARDL; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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