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The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan

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  • Ryota Matsuyama
  • Fuminari Miura
  • Hiroshi Nishiura

Abstract

In Japan, the fraction of norovirus outbreaks attributable to human-to-human transmission has increased with time, and the timing of the increased fraction has coincided with the increase in the observed fraction of genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4). The present study aimed to estimate the time-dependent changes in the transmissibility of noroviruses. The effective reproduction number (Ry), for year y, was estimated by analyzing the time series surveillance data for outbreak events from 2000 to 2016. Ry was estimated by using the fraction of outbreak events that were attributable to human-to-human transmission and by employing three different statistical models that are considered to mechanistically capture the possible data-generating process in different ways. The Ry estimates ranged from 0.14 to 4.15 in value, revealing an overall increasing trend (p

Suggested Citation

  • Ryota Matsuyama & Fuminari Miura & Hiroshi Nishiura, 2017. "The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0173996
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173996
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    1. Martin C. W. Chan & Nelson Lee & Tin-Nok Hung & Kirsty Kwok & Kelton Cheung & Edith K. Y. Tin & Raymond W. M. Lai & E. Anthony S. Nelson & Ting F. Leung & Paul K. S. Chan, 2015. "Rapid emergence and predominance of a broadly recognizing and fast-evolving norovirus GII.17 variant in late 2014," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, December.
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