IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v8y2017i1d10.1038_ncomms16101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

Author

Listed:
  • Eric C. J. Oliver

    (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Tasmania)

  • Jessica A. Benthuysen

    (Australian Institute of Marine Science)

  • Nathaniel L. Bindoff

    (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Tasmania
    Antarctic and Climate Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania)

  • Alistair J. Hobday

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Neil J. Holbrook

    (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Tasmania)

  • Craig N. Mundy

    (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick

    (Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Mathews Building, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
    Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Mathews Building, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia)

Abstract

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric C. J. Oliver & Jessica A. Benthuysen & Nathaniel L. Bindoff & Alistair J. Hobday & Neil J. Holbrook & Craig N. Mundy & Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2017. "The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms16101
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms16101
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/ncomms16101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms16101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.