This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearities in Foreign Exchange?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Blake LeBaron () (University of Wisconsin - Madison)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper tests whether fitted linear models can replicate results from moment tests inspired by moving average technical trading rules for weekly foreign exchange series. Estimation is performed using standard OLS and maximum likelihood methods, along with a simulated method of moments technique which incorporates the trading rule moments into the estimation procedure. Results show that linear models are capable of replicating the trading rule moments along with the small autocorrelations observed in these series. This result holds for parameter values estimated using SMM and GARCH disturbances, but not for parameters estimated using maximum likelihood. The estimated models are simulated to examine the amount of predictability over long horizons.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.wisc.edu/~blake/papers/ssri9222.ps
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Thomas Krichel)
File Format: application/postscript
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Wisconsin - Madison in its series Working papers with number _005.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wop:wimahp:_005

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393
Phone: 608/263-2989
Fax: 608/262-2033
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.wisc.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1996. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 014, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Enrico Zaninotto, 1997. "Comitati volontari e standard de-iure," Quaderni DISA 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy.
  3. Michael Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Working Papers 2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "The Cost of Technical Trading Rules in the Forex Market: A Utility-based Evaluation," Research Paper ERS-2003-052-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bertrand Maillet, Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Spyros Skouras, 1998. "Financial Returns and Efficiency as seen by an Artificial Technical Analyst," Finance 9808001, EconWPA, revised 24 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. P. Lequeux, E. Acar, 1998. "A dynamic index for managed currencies funds using CME currency contracts," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 311-330, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Emmanuel Acar, Stephen E. Satchell, 1997. "A theoretical analysis of trading rules: an application to the moving average case with Markovian returns," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 165-180, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ronald J. Balvers & Yangru Wu, 2005. "Optimal Transaction Filters Under Transitory Trading Opportunities: Theory and Empirical Illustration," Working Papers 022005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2005. "The economic value of technical trading rules: a nonparametric utility-based approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 41-62. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also covers the most complete directory of Economics departments and institutes, EDIRC.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.