Sustainable trends in producer price indices

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Sustainable trends in producer price indices

Author Info

Kitov, Ivan
Kitov, Oleg

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Abstract

Previously, linear trends were revealed in the differences between the headline CPI and the price indices for various subcategories of the CPI in the United States. These trends can be continuous, as observed with the price index for medical care, or piecewise with turning points between trends with opposite signs. Similar features are found for the PPI and its components. The presence of sustainable trends in the differences allows prediction of prices for various commodities at time horizons of several years. In addition, it is possible to time the start of transition to the next trend. Accordingly, the trends reduce the uncertainty in forecasting prices for major commodities and also for their small components. The usage of trends in the PPI could bring substantial benefits to producers (planning) and stock market participants (timely investment).

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15194.

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Date of creation: 12 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15194

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Related research
Keywords: PPI; CPI; US; prediction;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-05-16 (All new papers)
NEP-FOR-2009-05-16 (Forecasting)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Apples and oranges: relative growth rate of consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 13587, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2008. "Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 6900, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ). [Downloadable!]

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

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