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The anti-Phillips curve

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Author Info
Kitov, Ivan

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Abstract

There is no Phillips curve in the United States, i.e. unemployment does not drive inflation at any time horizon. There is a statistically robust anti-Phillips curve - inflation leads unemployment by 10 quarters. Apparently, the anti-Phillips curve would be the conventional one, if the time would flow in the opposite direction. Several tests for cointegration do not reject the hypothesis that there exist a long-term equilibrium relation between inflation and unemployment in the US. The cointegrating relation between inflation and unemployment is not the proof of causality, however, and both variables are driven by the same external force. Also presented are some statistical evidences that there exist conventional Phillips curves in Germany and France, but there is no causality link between unemployment and inflation as well.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13641.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13641

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Related research
Keywords: the Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; causality;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2008. "Comprehensive Macro – Model For The Us Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ivan, Kitov, 2006. "Exact prediction of inflation in the USA," MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-9.

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