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Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?

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Michael P. Dooley

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Abstract

Recent financial crises in emerging markets have been followed by temporary but substantial losses in output. This paper explores the possibility that threats of such losses are the dominant incentive for repayment of international debt. In this environment private debtors and creditors have strong incentives to design international contracts so that renegotiation is costly. Such contracts generate dead weight losses and proposals for reform of the international monetary system that modify explicit and implicit contractual arrangements and can be welfare improving under special circumstances. However, such proposals might also weaken the incentives that make private international debt possible.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7531.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7531

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F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Foundations of Incomplete Contracts," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1846, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  2. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Asking the right questions about the IMF," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pages 3-26.
  5. Amar Bhattacharya & Marcus Miller, 1999. "Coping with Crises: Is There a "Silver Bullet"?," CSGR Hot Topics: Research on Current Issues 06, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerald Caprio & Michael Dooley & Danny Leipziger & Carl Walsh, 1996. "The lender of last resort function under a currency board: The case of Argentina," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 625-650, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marcus Miller & Joseph Stiglitz, 1999. "Bankruptcy Protection Against Macroeconomics Shocks: The case for a 'super Chapter 11'," CSGR Hot Topics: Research on Current Issues 08, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Eaton, Jonathan, 1990. "Debt Relief and the International Enforcement of Loan Contracts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 43-56, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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