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The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I

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Author Info
Kenneth A. Froot
Paul G.J. O'Connell
Mark S. Seasholes

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Abstract

This paper explores the behavior of daily, international portfolio flows into and out of 46 countries from 1994 through 1998. Our data are from State Street Bank & Trust and encompass over 3 million trades by client institutions. We find a number of interesting facts. First, we detect regional factors within the flows. Second, the flows are strongly persistent -- the persistence decays only slowly over time. Third, flows are strongly influenced by past returns, so that investor trend-following is apparent. Fourth forecasting power for future emerging market returns, but not for developed country returns. Fifth, we find the sensitivity of local stock prices to foreign inflows to be positive and determine that transitory inflows impact future returns negatively. Finally, we examine and reject that the positive covariance of returns and inflows is associated with an information disadvantage on the part of international investors.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6687.

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Date of creation: Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6687

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  1. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Linda L. Tesar & Ingrid M. Werner, 1994. "International Equity Transactions and U.S. Portfolio Choice," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 185-227 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell, . "On the Pricing of Intermediated Risks: Theory and Application to Catastrophe Reinsurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-24, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1996. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Research Paper 9635, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Linda L. Tesar & Ingrid M. Werner, 1994. "International Equity Transactions and U.S. Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 4611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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