In this paper we study how aggregate output responds to the arrival of a new General Purpose Technology (GPT) by looking at adjustment mechanisms that operate through labor markets. We show that under a wide set of circumstances the arrival of a new GPT that raises long-run output can trigger a recession in the short-run. Furthermore, we characterize features of the GPT that produce a cyclical adjustment path. An initial recession occurs whenever a higher education level is required to operate the new GPT. But a recession can also occur when the new GPT has lower educational requirements. A cyclical adjustment path is more likely when inexperienced workers are less productive with the new technology and the faster productivity rises with experience in the new sector.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
6551.
Length: Date of creation: May 1998 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6551
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Find related papers by JEL classification: O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General
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Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2000.
"Contracting Productivity Growth,"
Working Papers
jorob-99-02, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
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