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On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation

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Author Info
Simon J. Evenett
Wolfgang Keller

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Abstract

We analyze two main theories of international trade, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the Increasing Returns trade theory, by examining whether they can account for the empirical success of the so-called Gravity Equation. Since versions of both models can generate this prediction, we tackle the model identification problem by conditioning bilateral trade relations on factor endowment differences and the share of intra-industry trade, because only for large factor endowment differences does the Heckscher-Ohlin model generate specialization of production and the Gravity Equation, and it predicts inter-, not intra-industry trade. There are three major findings: First, little production is perfectly specialized due to factor endowment differences, making the perfect specialization version of the Heckscher-Ohlin model an unlikely candidate to explain the empirical success of the Gravity Equation. Second, increasing returns are important causes for perfect product specialization and the Gravity Equation, especially among industrialized countries. Third, to the extent that production is not perfectly specialized across countries, we find support for both Heckscher-Ohlin and Increasing Returns models. Based on these findings, we argue that both models explain different components of the international variation of production patterns and trade volumes, with important implications for productivity growth, labor and macroeconomics.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6529.

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Date of creation: Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6529

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

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    Other versions:
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  11. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1990. "The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-industry Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1216-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2000. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View From Trade," NBER Working Papers 7941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Haveman, J. & Hummels, D., 1997. "What Can We Learn from Bilateral Trade? Gravity and Beyond," Papers 97-002, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
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  20. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Harrigan, James, 1996. "Openness to trade in manufactures in the OECD," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 23-39, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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