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Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets

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Author Info
Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

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Abstract

We construct portfolios of stocks and of bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources for predictability by using several asset groups, including industry-sorted portfolios, and find that the sources of maximal predictability shift considerably across asset classes and sectors as the return-horizon changes. Using three out-of-sample measures of predictability, we show that the predictability of the maximally predictable portfolio is genuine and economically significant.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5027.

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Date of creation: Feb 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5027

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  32. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Doron Avramov, . "Stock-Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, . "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Predictability of equity models," Textos para discussão 176, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "What determines protection of property rights ? An analysis of direct and indirect effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3940, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yochanan Shachmurove & Uri BenZion & Paul Klein & Joseph Yagil, 2001. "A Moving Average Comparison of the Tel-Aviv 25 and S&P 500 Stock Indices," Penn CARESS Working Papers 4731f3394c43bebf4d3191c81, Penn Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Frenk, J.B.G. & Schaible, S., 2004. "Fractional Programming," Research Paper ERS-2004-074-LIS Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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