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Short-Term Movements of Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence from the U.K. Indexed Bond Market

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James A. Wilcox
Abstract

The central goverment now issues both nominal and iflation indexed long-term bonds in the United Kingdom. The difference in their yields provides one measure of the long-term expevted rate of inflation. The evidence suggests that higher long-term, expected , real yields are associated with forecasts of higher income, with tigher monetary policy, and with positive aggregate supply shocks. Changes in the short-termgrowth rate of the monbetary base, which presumably capture the so-called liquidity effect on the short-terminterst rates, do not perceptibly alterlong-term real rates. Long-term real rates also appear to be unaffected by the rate of expected inflation. Comparison with nominal interest rate equiation estimates reveals that conclusions about the effect of all variables are extremely sensitive to the choice of a proxy for expected long-term inflation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1543.

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Date of creation: Jan 1985
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1543

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  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Inflation, Income Taxes, and the Rate of Interest: A Theoretical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 809-20, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. K. Alec Chrystal, 1984. "Dutch disease or monetarist medicine?: The British economy under Mrs. Thatcher," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 27-37. [Downloadable!]
  4. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1978. "Anticipated Inflation and Interest Rates: Further Interpretation of Findings on the Fisher Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 801-12, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 266-76, June.
  6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cargill, Thomas F & Meyer, Robert A, 1980. " The Term Structure of Inflationary Expectations and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 57-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Peek, Joe, 1982. "Interest Rates, Income Taxes, and Anticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 980-91, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1983-2), pages 305-380. [Downloadable!]
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