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Are Business Cycles Symmetric?

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Author Info
J. Bradford De Long
Lawrence H. Summers

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Abstract

This note shows that contrary to widespread belief there is little evidence that the business cycle is asymmetric. Using American data for the pre- and post-war periods and data on five other major OECD nations for the post-war period, we are unable to support the hypothesis that contractions are shorter and sharper than expansions. We conclude that there is not much basis for preferring some version of traditional cyclical techniques to more modern statistical methods.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1444.

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Date of creation: Nov 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1444

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  1. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1980. "The "End-of-Expansion" Phenomenon in Short-run Productivity Behavior," NBER Working Papers 0427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.

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