This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Robin Greenwood
Dimitri Vayanos
Abstract

We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs. Consistent with the model, we find that (i) the supply of long- relative to short-term bonds is positively related to the term spread, (ii) supply predicts positively long-term bonds' excess returns even after controlling for the term spread and the Cochrane-Piazzesi factor, (iii) the effects of supply are stronger for longer maturities, and (iv) following periods when arbitrageurs have lost money, both supply and the term spread are stronger predictors of excess returns.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13806.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13806.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13806

Note: AP
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Holland, Thomas E, 1969. "'Operation Twist' and the Movement of Interest Rates and Related Economic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(3), pages 260-65, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Julia Fernald & Patricia C. Mosser & Frank Keane, 1994. "Mortgage security hedging and the yield curve," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 92-100.
  4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ralph S.J Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Poteshman, Allen M, 2005. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Myron H. Ross, 1966. ""Operation Twist": A Mistaken Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 195. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Julia Fernald & Patricia C. Mosser & Frank Keane, 1994. "Mortgage security hedging and the yield curve," Research Paper 9411, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2007. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 557-595, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice," NBER Working Papers 14087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba & David Lopez-Salido, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency," NBER Working Papers 14242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? No RePEc service, like IDEAS, charges for the use or the display of bibliographic data.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.