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Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q

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Enrique G. Mendoza

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Abstract

The current account reversals, large recessions, and price collapses that define Sudden Stops contradict the predictions of a large class of models in which the current account is a vehicle for consumption smoothing and investment financing. This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a business cycle model with collateral constraints are consistent with the key features of Sudden Stops. Standard shocks to imported input prices, the world interest rate, and productivity trigger collateral constraints on debt and working capital when borrowing levels are high relative to asset values, and these high-leverage states are endogenous outcomes. In these situations, Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism causes Sudden Stops as the deflation of Tobin's Q leads to a spiraling decline in the prices and holdings of collateral assets. This has immediate effects on output and factor demands because collapsing collateral values cut access to working capital. In contrast with previous findings, collateral constraints induce significant amplification in the responses of macroaggregates to shocks. Because of precautionary saving, Sudden Stops are infrequent events nested within normal cycles in the long run, but they remain a positive probability event.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12564.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12564

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ester Faia, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Capital Account Liberalization," CEIS Research Paper 92, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?," Staff Report 391, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Trejos, Alberto & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes, 2008. "Trade in intermediate goods and total factor productivity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 676, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Staff Report 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Benjamin, David M. & Meza, Felipe, . "Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the 1997 Korea Crisis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0701, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  7. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2009. "Capital Flows and Asset Prices," CEP Discussion Papers dp0921, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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    • Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2007. "Capital Flows and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ruy Lama, 2009. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 09/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki & INABA Masaru, 2007. "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," Discussion papers 07013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  14. Enrique Mendoza, 2006. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Enrique Mendoza on Financial Frictions, Sudden Stops and Global Imbalances," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November. [Downloadable!]
  15. Vasco Curdia, 2007. "Monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 278, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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