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Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor

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Author Info
Susan Dynarski

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Abstract

Half of college students drop out before completing a degree. These low rates of college completion among young people should be viewed in the context of slow future growth in the educated labor force, as the well-educated baby boomers retire and new workers are drawn from populations with historically low education levels. This paper establishes a causal link between college costs and the share of workers with a college education. I exploit the introduction of two large tuition subsidy programs, finding that they increase the share of the population that completes a college degree by three percentage points. The effects are strongest among women, with white women increasing degree receipt by 3.2 percentage points and the share of nonwhite women attempting or completing any years of college increasing by six and seven percentage points, respectively. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that tuition reduction can be a socially efficient method for increasing college completion. However, even with the offer of free tuition, a large share of students continue to drop out, suggesting that the direct costs of school are not the only impediment to college completion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11604.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11604

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance
I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dee, Thomas S., 2004. "Are there civic returns to education?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1697-1720, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Janet Currie & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Mother'S Education And The Intergenerational Transmission Of Human Capital: Evidence From College Openings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1495-1532, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher M. Cornwell & David B. Mustard & Deepa Sridhar, 2005. "The Enrollment Effects of Merit-Based Financial Aid: Evidence from Georgia's HOPE Scholarship," HEW 0501002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Eric Bettinger, 2004. "How Financial Aid Affects Persistence," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 207-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Page, Marianne & Stevens, Ann & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2005. "The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling," Working Papers 05-19, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Philip Oreopoulos & Marianne E. Page & Ann Huff Stevens, 2003. "Does Human Capital Transfer from Parent to Child? The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling," NBER Working Papers 10164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-60, September.
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  10. David T. Ellwood, 2001. "The Sputtering Labor Force of the 21st Century. Can Social Policy Help?," NBER Working Papers 8321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Susan Dynarski, 2000. "Hope for Whom? Financial Aid for the Middle Class and Its Impact on College Attendance," NBER Working Papers 7756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Card & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," NBER Working Papers 3358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 189-221, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Joshua D. Angrist, 1993. "The effect of veterans' benefits on education and earnings," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 46(4), pages 637-652, July.
  16. Susan M. Dynarski, 2003. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 279-288, March. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kevin Milligan & Enrico Moretti & Philip Oreopoulos, 2003. "Does Education Improve Citizenship? Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," NBER Working Papers 9584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 175-212. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Susan Dynarski, 2002. "The Behavioral and Distributional Implications of Aid for College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 279-285, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin D. Dooley & A. Abigail Payne & A. Leslie Robb, 2009. "Merit-Aid and the Distribution of Entering Students Across Ontario Universities," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-12, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dynarski, Susan & Scott-Clayton, Judith, 2008. "Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: A Quantitative Analysis," Working Paper Series rwp08-005, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joshua Angrist & Daniel Lang & Philip Oreopoulos, 2007. "Incentives and Services for College Achievement: Evidence from a Randomized Trial," IZA Discussion Papers 3134, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jason M. Lindo & Nicholas J. Sanders & Philip Oreopoulos, 2008. "Ability, Gender, and Performance Standards: Evidence from Academic Probation," NBER Working Papers 14261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dynarski, Susan & Scott-Clayton, Judith, 2006. "The Cost of Complexity in Federal Student Aid: Lessons from Optimal Tax Theory and Behavioral Economics," Working Paper Series rwp06-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2009. "Into College, Out of Poverty? Policies to Increase the Postsecondary Attainment of the Poor," NBER Working Papers 15387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Elizabeth Cascio & Damon Clark & Nora Gordon, 2008. "Education and the Age Profile of Literacy into Adulthood," NBER Working Papers 14073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kevin Milligan & Mark Stabile, 2008. "Do Child Tax Benefits Affect the Wellbeing of Children? Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions," NBER Working Papers 14624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Joshua Angrist & Daniel Lang & Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Lead Them to Water and Pay Them to Drink: An Experiment with Services and Incentives for College Achievement," NBER Working Papers 12790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Donata Bessey & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2008. "Dropping out and revising educational decisions: Evidence from vocational education," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0040, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
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