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Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies

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Jeffrey A. Frankel

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Abstract

The paper reviews recent trends in thinking on exchange rate regimes. It begins by classifying countries into regimes, noting the distinction between de facto and de jure regimes, but also noting the low correlation among proposed ways of classifying the latter. The advantages of fixed exchange rates versus floating are reviewed, including the recent evidence on the trade-promoting effects of currency unions. Frameworks for tallying up the pros and cons include the traditional Optimum Currency Area criteria, as well as some new criteria from the experiences of the 1990s. The Corners Hypothesis may now be peaking' as rapidly as it rose, in light of its lack of foundations. Empirical evidence regarding the economic performance of different regimes depends entirely on the classification scheme. A listing of possible nominal anchors alongside exchange rates observes that each candidate has its own vulnerability, leading to the author's proposal to Peg the Export Price (PEP). The concluding section offers some implications for East Asia.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10032.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10032

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles Wyplosz, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in Asia: Do They Matter?," HEI Working Papers 04-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 11 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shankar Acharya, 2008. "India’s Macroeconomic Performance and Policies Since 2000," Working Papers id:1740, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  3. Madhavi Bokil, 2005. "Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis," International Finance 0510002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Østrup, Finn, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2005-1, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment During The Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Approach," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-001, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Meissner, C.M. & Oomes, N., 2006. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0643, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio Alberto & Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier, 2006. "El efecto de las intervenciones cambiarias: la experiencia colombiana 2004-2006," MPRA Paper 942, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2009. "Choosing and assessing exchange rate regimes: A survey of the literature," MPRA Paper 16314, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Flávio Vilela Vieira & Márcio Holland, 2004. "Exchange Rate Dynamics In Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 066, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  11. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hiroya Akiba & Yukihiro Iida & Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2009. "The optimal exchange rate regime for a small country," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 315-343, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Shankar Acharya, . "India's Macroeconomic Performance and Policies since 2000," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 225, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  18. Artis, Michael J, 2006. "What Do We Now Know About Currency Unions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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