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An Integrated View of Tests of Rationality, Market Efficiency, and the Short-Run Neutrality of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Andrew B. Abel
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4) Granger causality in macroeconometric models. The common elements of these tests are highlighted. In particular, cross-equation tests for rationality or the short-run neutrality of money are shown to be equivalent to more common regression tests in the literature. Also discussed are the conditions for identification and the implications for whether hypotheses are testable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0726.

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Date of creation: Sep 1983
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0726

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Modigliani, Franco, 1977. "The Monetarist Controversy or, Should We Forsake Stabilization Policies?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 1-19, March.
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  2. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. McCallum, Bennett T, 1979. "On the Observational Inequivalence of Classical and Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-402, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
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    • William Poole, 2000. "Expectations," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  9. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abel, Andrew B & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1983. "On the Econometric Testing of Rationality-Market Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 318-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Nelson, Charles R, 1979. "Granger Causality and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 390-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Grossman, Jacob, 1979. "Nominal Demand Policy and Short-Run Fluctuations in Unemployment and Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1063-85, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kohn, R, 1979. "Asymptotic Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Results for Vector Linear Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1005-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Guy V.G. Stevens & Dara Akbarian, 1994. "On risk, rational expectations, and efficient asset markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 478, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 1988. "Two-Step, Instrumental Variable and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Multivariate Rational Expectations Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 493, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric results," NBER Working Papers 0789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong & Zhang, Yinglei, 2004. "Do Investors Overvalue Firms with Bloated Balance Sheets?," Working Paper Series 2004-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), October. [Downloadable!]
  8. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hasan Bakhshi & George Kapetanios & Anthony Yates, . "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 176, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  11. V. Vance Roley, 1987. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1998. "Quality expectations, reputation, and price," MPRA Paper 9774, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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