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Estimating First-Price Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders: A Misclassification Approach

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Author Info
Yingyao Hu
Matthew Shum

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Abstract

In this paper, we consider nonparametric identification and estimation of first-price auction models when N*, the number of potential bidders, is unknown to the researcher, but observed by bidders. Exploiting results from the recent econometric literature on models with misclassification error, we develop a nonparametric procedure for recovering the distribution of bids conditional on the unknown N*. Monte Carlo results illustrate that the procedure works well in practice. We present illustrative evidence from a dataset of procurement auctions, which shows that accounting for the unobservability of N* can lead to economically meaningful differences in the estimates of bidders' profit margins.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 541.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:541

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Emmanuel Guerre & Isabelle Perrigne & Quang Vuong, 2000. "Optimal Nonparametric Estimation of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 525-574, May.
  2. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Ossard, Herve & Vuong, Quang, 1995. "Econometrics of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 953-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Li, Tong & Perrigne, Isabelle & Vuong, Quang, 2000. "Conditionally independent private information in OCS wildcat auctions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 129-161, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw, 2007. "If Winning isn't Everything, why do they keep Score? A Structural Empirical Analysis of Dutch Flower Auctions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-041/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Tong Li, 2005. "Econometrics of first-price auctions with entry and binding reservation prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 173-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Susan Athey, 2005. "Comparing Open and Sealed Bid Auctions: Theory and Evidence from Timber Auctions," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000098, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Paarsch, Harry J., 1997. "Deriving an estimate of the optimal reserve price: An application to British Columbian timber sales," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 333-357, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Harry J. Paarsch & Han Hong, 2006. "An Introduction to the Structural Econometrics of Auction Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262162350, January.
  9. Hong, Han & Shum, Matthew, 2002. "Increasing Competition and the Winner's Curse: Evidence from Procurement," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(4), pages 871-98, October.
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  10. Susan Athey & Philip A. Haile, 2002. "Identification of Standard Auction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2107-2140, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Adams, Christopher P., 2007. "Estimating demand from eBay prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1213-1232, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Matthew Shum, 2000. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1598, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kenneth Hendricks & Joris Pinkse & Robert H. Porter, 2003. "Empirical Implications of Equilibrium Bidding in First--Price, Symmetric, Common Value Auctions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 115-145, January.
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  14. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin & Enrique Seira, 2004. "Comparing Open and Sealed Bid Auctions: Theory and Evidence from Timber Auctions," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000524, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. repec:att:wimass:1920013 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Guerre, E. & Perrigne, I. & Vuong, Q., 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of First-Price Auctions," Papers 9504, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  17. Tong Li & Xiaoyong Zheng, 2006. "Entry and competition effects in first-price auctions: theory and evidence from procurement auctions," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  18. Aprajit Mahajan, 2006. "Identification and Estimation of Regression Models with Misclassification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 631-665, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Shneyerov, Art & Wong, Adam Chi Leung, 2008. "Identification in First-Price and Dutch Auctions when the Number of Potential Bidders is Unobservable," Micro Theory Working Papers artyom_shneyerov-2008-12, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 01 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
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