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Dynamic time series binary choice

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Author Info
Robert M. de Jong
Tiemen Woutersen

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Abstract

This paper considers dynamic time series binary choice models. It proves near epoch dependence and strong mixing for the dynamic binary choice model with correlated errors. Using this result, it shows in a time series setting the validity of the dynamic probit likelihood procedure when lags of the dependent binary variable are used as regressors, and it establishes the asymptotic validity of Horowitz?smoothed maximum score estimation of dynamic binary choice models with lags of the dependent variable as regressors. For the semiparametric model, the latent error is explicitly allowed to be correlated. It turns out that no long-run variance estimator is needed for the validity of the smoothed maximum score procedure in the dynamic time series framework.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 538.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:538

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Matzkin, Rosa L, 1992. "Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Threshold Crossing and the Binary Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 239-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Imbens, G.W., 1991. "An Efficient Method Of Moments Estimator For Discrete Choice Models With Choice-Based Sampling," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1546, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  3. Manski, Charles F., 1985. "Semiparametric analysis of discrete response : Asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-333, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. de Jong, Robert M., 1997. "Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Random Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 353-367, June. [Downloadable!]
  5. Poirier, Dale J & Ruud, Paul A, 1988. "Probit with Dependent Observations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 593-614, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:353-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Cosslett, Stephen R, 1983. "Distribution-Free Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Binary Choice Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 765-82, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1987. "Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables," Working Papers 645, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  9. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986. "Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 790, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Siddhartha Chib & Michael J. Dueker, 2004. "Non-Markovian regime switching with endogenous states and time-varying state strengths," Working Papers 2004-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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