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Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz

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Author Info
Bonin, Holger () (IZA)

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Abstract

Der Beitrag untersucht die Bedeutung von Zuwanderung für die langfristige Entwicklung öffentlicher Haushalte in Deutschland. Mit Hilfe der Generationenbilanzierung werden die Nettosteuerzahlungen von Zuwanderern von ihrer Ankunft im Aufnahmeland bis an ihr Lebensende geschätzt. Wenn künftige Einwanderer der heute in Deutschland lebenden Ausländerbevölkerung ähneln, ist der Gesamtbeitrag der Zuwanderung zu den öffentlichen Haushalten eindeutig positiv. Immigration wäre daher ein geeignetes Instrument, in einer alternden Gesellschaft steigende Steuerlasten für die einheimische Bevölkerung zu verringern. Eine aktive Einwanderungspolitik, die hoch Qualifizierte selektiert und die Integration der Zuwanderer in den Arbeitsmarkt unterstützt, vergrößert die positiven Wirkungen auf die Steuerlast der einheimischen Bevölkerung. Allerdings kann selbst hohe Zuwanderung gut ausgebildeter Erwerbspersonen die von einer alternden Bevölkerung ausgelösten generationalen Umverteilungsprozesse nur teilweise aufheben. The paper employs generational accounting to analyze the intertemporal fiscal impact of mmigration to Germany. Generational accounts for native and alien residents are distinguished to assess what might be the lifetime net tax payments of prospective immigrants after arrival. Supposed future immigrants resemble the current migrant population in Germany, the fiscal externality on the incumbent population due to immigration is found positive and large. Further, immigration probably reduces generational redistribution through demographic aging even if migrants assimilate slowly fiscally. However, while selective immigration policy could raise the average migrant surplus to the intertemporal government budget, it cannot restore fiscal sustainability.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 305.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp305

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Related research
Keywords: Generational accounting; migration; fiscal sustainability; Germany;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John P. Haisken-DeNew & Felix Büchel & Gert G. Wagner, 1997. "Assimilation and Other Determinants of School Attainment in Germany: Do Immigrant Children Perform as Well as Germans?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(1), pages 169-179.
  2. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
  3. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "The social assimilation of immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 37-54.
  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, . "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhuschen & Jan Walliser, 1994. "The burden of German unification: a generational accounting approach," Working Paper 9412, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Haveman, Robert, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
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  11. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1997. "Immigrant performance in Germany: Labor earnings of ethnic German migrants and foreign guest-workers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 379-397. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paul W. Miller, 1999. "Immigration Policy and Immigrant Quality: The Australian Points System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 192-197, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harry Flam, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christoph M. Schmidt & Michael Fertig, 2002. "Mobility within Europe – The Attitudes of European Youngsters," RWI Discussion Papers 0001, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  3. John P Haisken-DeNew & Christoph M. Schmidt & Thomas Bauer, 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets – The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 0020, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richter, Wolfram F., 2002. "Social Security and Taxation of Labour Subject to Subsidiarity and Freedom of Movement," IZA Discussion Papers 490, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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