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Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities

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Author Info
Gianni De Nicoló
Iryna V. Ivaschenko
Abstract

This paper constructs new indicators of liquidity for equity, bond and money markets in major advanced and emerging market countries, documents their evolution and comovements, and assesses the extent to which such measures are determinants of selected spreads and proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities. Three main results obtain. First, there is evidence of an historical increase in market liquidity since the early 1990s, in part as a result of advances in international financial integration, but markets have been increasingly exposed to global systemic liquidity shocks. Second, liquidity indicators appear to be important determinants of bond spreads in advanced economies and EMBI spreads in emerging markets. Third, improvements in market liquidity have significant real effects, as liquidity indicators have a significant positive impact on proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/52.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 19 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/52

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Related research
Keywords: International liquidity ; Stock markets ; Bond markets ; Risk premium ; Developed countries ; Emerging markets ; Economic integration ; Economic growth ; Economic models ;

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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  4. Jennifer Huang & Jiang Wang, 2008. "Liquidity and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Liquidity Black Holes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1434, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial cycles," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jan. [Downloadable!]
  12. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2007. "Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1081-1137, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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