This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
M. Ayhan Kose
Stijn Claessens
Marco Terrones

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08274.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/274.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 75 pages
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/274

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Economic recession ; Business cycles ; Financial crisis ; Credit ; Housing prices ; Stock prices ; Oil prices ; Databases ; Economic models ;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q," International Finance Discussion Papers 960, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert E. Hall, 2007. "How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2007-2), pages 13-30. [Downloadable!]
  7. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Working Papers 4765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Hansen, Gary D & Prescott, Edward C, 1993. "Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 280-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!]
  22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
  25. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  26. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Jonathan Coppel, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  30. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "Comment on "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods"," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1691-1693, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  34. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  35. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  36. George L. Perry & Charles L. Schultze, 1993. "Was This Recession Different? Are They All Different," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 145-212. [Downloadable!]
  37. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  40. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  41. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Gross Credit Flows," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 665-685, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  42. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 205-248. [Downloadable!]
  43. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  44. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179. [Downloadable!]
  45. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  46. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  47. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  48. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  49. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Argandoña, Antonio, 2009. "Can corporate social responsibility help us understand the credit crisis?," IESE Research Papers D/790, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  3. Selim Elekdag & Roberto Cardarelli & Subir Lall, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use IDEAS to provide links to papers and articles in your course syllabus.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-21.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.