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International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?

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Author Info
Jonathan David Ostry
Enrique G. Mendoza

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Abstract

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency is much weaker, however, at high debt levels. These findings suggest that many industrial and emerging market economies, including several where fiscal solvency has been the subject of recent debates, appear to conduct fiscal policy responsibly. Yet our results cannot reject the hypothesis of fiscal insolvency in groups of countries with high debt ratios.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/56.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 14 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/56

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal Solvency; Fiscal Policy; Debt Sustainability ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 1996. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Economics Working Papers 170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Luis Catão & Bennett Sutton, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Barro, Robert J, 1986. " U.S. Deficits since World War I," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 88(1), pages 195-22.
  10. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. E. H. Gardner & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2008. "Lebanon-Weathering the Perfect Storms," IMF Working Papers 08/17, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pascal Towbin, 2008. "Current Account Adjustment and Financial Integration," HEI Working Papers 11-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Raghbendra Jha, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A Synoptic View," ASARC Working Papers 2007-01, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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