This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Dominique Guegan () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
Florian Ielpo () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimate the subjective distribution of the future short rate from the historical dynamics of futures, based on a model generated by a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution, with dynamical parameters. The model displays time varying conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis and provides a flexible framework to recover the conditional distribution of the future rates. For the estimation, we use maximum likelihood method. Then, we apply the model to Fed Fund futures and discuss its performance.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/18/82/47/PDF/B07056.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00188247_v1.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00188247_v1

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00188247/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (CCSD).

Related research
Keywords: Subjective distribution; autoregressive conditional density; generalized hyperbolic distribution; Fed Funds futures contracts.;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
    Other versions:
  3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. John B. Carlson & William R. Melick & Erkin Y. Sahinoz, 2003. "An option for anticipating Fed action," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Sep 1. [Downloadable!]
  6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Want to help out with this project? Look for volunteer opportunities.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-14.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.