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Gamma Discounting

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Author Info
Martin L. Weitzman

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Abstract

A critical problem, which has long plagued cost-benefit analysis, concerns the appropriate interest rate to use for discounting the future. This paper proposes a new approach to resolving the dilemma of the unknown discount rate, by incorporating the uncertainty directly into the analysis. An operational methodology is developed to determine the time-dependent schedule of effective interest rates appropriate for discounting long-term environmental projects or activities, like mitigating the effects of global warming. A numerical example is constructed from the results of a survey based on the opinions of 1,720 economists. Implications and ramifications of the proposed "gamma-discounting" approach are discussed.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 1843.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:1843

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Cropper, Maureen & Laibson, David, 1998. "The implications of hyperbolic discounting for project evaluation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1943, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pizer, William A., 1999. "The optimal choice of climate change policy in the presence of uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 255-287, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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