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Intrinsic Bubbles and Fat Tails in Stock Prices

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Author Info
Prasad Bidarkota () (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

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Abstract

We study the constant discount rate present value model for stock pricing in a stochastic setting where the exogenous dividend stream is modeled as a random walk with innovations drawn from the family of stable distributions. We derive an exact analytical solution for the fundamental stock price. We evaluate the ability of the model fundamentals and the dividends-driven intrinsic bubbles to explain the observed variation in annual US stock prices. We compare results obtained in this setting with those from the traditional model where all stochastic processes are driven by Gaussian shocks.

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File URL: http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/economics/wp2003/03-06.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2003
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Florida International University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0306.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0306

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Related research
Keywords: Stock prices; present-value model; intrinsic bubbles; fat tails; normal distributions; stable distributions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Thomas Lux & D. Sornette, 1999. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/9910141, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Thomas Lux & Didier Sornette, 1999. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Discussion Paper Serie B 458, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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