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Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles

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Gerald Carlino
Keith Sill

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Abstract

This paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major U.S. regions during the 1956-95 period. Cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components. The authors find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the Far West. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, the authors find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles, but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 00-8.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:00-8

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Keywords: Income;

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  1. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Álvaro M. Pina, 2008. "Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Working Papers 2008/21, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL 003159, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Keith R. Phillips & Jesus Canas, 2004. "Business cycle coordination along the Texas-Mexico border," Working Papers 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  7. Uwe Böwer & Catherine Guillemineau, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "A redefinition of economic regions in the U.S," Working Papers 04-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ana María Cerro & José Pineda, 2002. "Latin American growth cycles. Empirical evidence: 1960 - 2000," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1 Year 20), pages 89-108, June. [Downloadable!]
  11. Blanca Sanchez-Robles & Jose Villaverde, 2001. "Costs of EMU from a regional approach: the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa01p52, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  13. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions," Working papers 2004-22, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2004. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Working Paper 2004-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Thomas Garrett & Gary Wagner & David Wheelock, 2007. "Regional disparities in the spatial correlation of state income growth, 1977–2002," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 601-618, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Keith Phillips & Jesus Cañas, 2008. "Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 153-168, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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