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Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer

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Rebecca Hellerstein

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Abstract

This paper quantifies the welfare effects of a change in the nominal exchange rate using the example of the beer market. I estimate a structural econometric model that makes it possible to compute manufacturers' and retailers' pass-through of a nominal exchange-rate change, without observing wholesale prices or firms' marginal costs. I conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify how the change affects domestic and foreign firms' profits and domestic consumer welfare. The counterfactual experiments show that foreign manufacturers bear more of the cost of an exchange-rate change than do domestic consumers, domestic manufacturers, or a domestic retailer. The model can be applied to other markets and can serve as a tool to assess the welfare effects of various exchange-rate policies.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 179.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:179

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Keywords: Beer industry ; Foreign exchange rates ; Corporate profits ; Economic conditions ; Economic policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Harvey S. Rosen & Kenneth A. Small, 1981. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 0319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kadiyali, Vrinda, 1997. "Exchange rate pass-through for strategic pricing and advertising: An empirical analysis of the U.S. photographic film industry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 437-461, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K Kashyap & Peter E. Rossi, 2003. "Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 15-37, March. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H., 2001. "Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 29-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  13. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-42, March.
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  14. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gordon M. Bodnar & Bernard Dumas & Richard C. Marston, 2002. "Pass-through and Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 199-231, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Knetter, Michael M, 1993. "International Comparisons of Price-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 473-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Aksoy, Yunus & Riyanto, Yohanes E, 2000. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Vertically Related Markets," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 235-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1989. "Empirical studies of industries with market power," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 1011-1057 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Katz, Michael L., 1989. "Vertical contractual relations," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 655-721 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Tille, Cedric, 2001. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of monetary shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 421-444, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Mahbub Morshed, A. K. M., 2003. "What can we learn from a large border effect in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 353-369, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why," Staff Reports 261, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Linda Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2006. "The internationalization of the dollar and trade balance adjustment," Staff Reports 255, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sofia Villas-Boas & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2004. "Identification of Supply Models of Retailer and Manufacturer Oligopoly Pricing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 993, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2003. "The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 53-81, October. [Downloadable!]
  5. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," Staff Reports 247, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S & González Mìnguez, Jose Manuel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "Incomplete Cost Pass-Through Under Deep Habits," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/06, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Bonnet, Céline & Dubois, Pierre, 2008. "Inference on Vertical Contracts between Manufacturers and Retailers Allowing for Non Linear Pricing and Resale Price Maintenance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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