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Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions

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James Bullard
Alison Butler

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Abstract

This survey paper discusses the policy implications that can be expected from the recent research on nonlinearity and chaos in economic models. Expected policy implications are interpreted as a driving force behind the recent proliferation of research in this area. In general, it appears that no new justification for policy intervention is developed in models of endogenous fluctuations, although this conclusion depends in part on the definition of equilibrium. When justified, however, policy tends to be very effective in these models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1991-002.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Journal , vol. 103, pp. 849-867 (July 1993)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1991-002

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Economic stabilization;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Friedman, Milton, 1971. "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 846-56, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. repec:att:wimass:199117 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall. [Downloadable!]
  9. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Becker, R.C. & Foias, C., 1992. "The Local Bifurcation of Ramsey Equilibrium," Papers 92-002, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
  11. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Equilibrium Models of Endogenous Fluctuations: an Introduction," NBER Working Papers 3360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kelsey, David, 1988. "The Economics of Chaos or the Chaos of Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  17. Alison Butler, 1990. "A methodological approach to chaos: are economists missing the point?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 36-48. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. William A. Barnett & Alfredo Medio & Apostolos Serletis, 1997. "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics," Econometrics 9709001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 127, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Jones & Neil Manning & Maxwell Stevenson, 1994. "The Unemployment Rate and the Business Cycle in Britain: An Aggregate and Regional Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 591-604, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Franz Alonso Hamann S., 1996. "Puede Explicarse El Precio Externo Del Café Con Un Modelo Econometrico No Lineal?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003408, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Too much of a good thing: endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress," MPRA Paper 2845, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Vivaldo M. Mendes & Diana A. Mendes, 2006. "Active Interest Rate Rules and the Role of Stabilization Policy R&D Tax Credits," Working Papers ercwp0208, ISCTE, UNIDE, Economics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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