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Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression

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Author Info
Michael D. Bordo
Christopher J. Erceg
Charles L. Evans

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Abstract

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 591.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:591

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Keywords: Money ; Wages ; Depressions;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Michael D. Bordo, 1989. "The Contribution of a Monetary History of the United States: 1867 to 1960 To Monetary History," NBER Working Papers 2549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher J. Erceg, 1997. "Nominal wage rigidities and the propagation of monetary disturbances," International Finance Discussion Papers 590, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 513-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Goldin, Claudia & Margo, Robert A, 1992. "The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in the United States at Mid-century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 1-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated? : Evidence from nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-34, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bernanke, Ben S & Carey, Kevin, 1996. "Nominal Wage Stickiness and Aggregate Supply in the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 853-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U & Schwartz, Anna J, 1995. "Could Stable Money Have Averted the Great Contraction?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 484-505, July.
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  15. Romer, Christina D, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "FINITE-SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF PERCENTILE AND PERCENTILE-t BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR IMPULSE RESPONSES," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  18. Robert G. King, 1991. "Money and business cycles," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  19. Michael D. Bordo, 1989. "The Contribution of "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960" to Monetary History," NBER Chapters, in: Money, History, and International Finance: Essays in Honor of Anna J. Schwartz, pages 15-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  20. Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "Monetary and other explanations of the start of the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 455-471, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Crucini, Mario J. & Kahn, James, 1996. "Tariffs and aggregate economic activity: Lessons from the Great Depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 427-467, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jang-Ok Cho & Louis Phaneuf, 1993. "A business cycle model with nominal wage contracts and government," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 80, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Barry Eichengreen., 1991. "The Origins and Nature of the Great Slump, Revisited," Economics Working Papers 91-156, University of California at Berkeley.
  24. Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Romer, Christina D, 1993. "The Nation in Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 19-39, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  30. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-24. [Downloadable!]
  31. Calomiris, Charles W, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. O'Brien, Anthony Patrick, 1989. "A Behavioral Explanation for Nominal Wage Rigidity during the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 719-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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