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The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases

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Hali J. Edison

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Abstract

This paper examines the response of exchange rates and interest rates--U.S. and foreign--to economic news. The news is associated with the surprise component of the monthly release of six U.S. macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that dollar exchange rates systematically react to news about real economic activity--a surprise of 100,000 on nonfarm payroll employment leads to a 0.2 percent appreciation of the exchange rate. In general, exchange rates do not react systematically to news on inflation. By contrast, U.S. interest rates respond to both types of news, although the response continues to be extremely small, on the order of 1 to 2 basis points. Finally, Japanese interest rates systematically react, but to a very minor extent, to news about U.S. real economic activity, while German rates in general do not.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 570.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:570

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Interest rates;

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  1. Ghosh, Sucharita & Lien, Donald, 1995. "Data Revision and Market Response: The Case of United States Trade Balance Announcements," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 265-75, May.
  2. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Kopecky, Kenneth J, 1995. "Domestic macroeconomic news and foreign interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 763-783, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 154, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Oscar Bajo Rubio & María Dolores Montávez Garcés, 1998. "Tipo de cambio, expectativas y nueva información: evidencia para el caso de la peseta, 1986-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hess, Dieter E., 2000. "Surprises in scheduled releases : why do they move the bond market?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Amigo Dobaño, L., 2003. "Estimación de modelos de “nueva información”: aplicación a los mercados de cambio en períodos de menor y/o mayor espectación," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 5-26, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stefan Krause, 2004. "The Impact of News in the Dollar/Deutschmark Exchange Rate: Evidence from the 1990's," Emory Economics 0422, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  8. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  12. Frank Campbell & Eleanor Lewis, 1998. "What Moves Yields in Australia?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9808, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2094, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J. Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/83, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Dieter Hess, 2001. "Surprises in U.S. macroeconomic releases: Determinants of their relative impact on T-Bond futures," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  16. S. Kim & J. Sheen, . "International; Linkages & Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US," Working Papers 9811, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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