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Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets

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Michael Hutchison
Ilan Noy (Neuberger)

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Abstract

Sudden Stops are the simultaneous occurrence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows (Calvo, 1998). We investigate the output effects of financial crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a “Mexican wave”). Despite an emerging theoretical literature on Sudden Stops, empirical work to date has not precisely identified their occurrences nor measured their subsequent output effects in broad samples. Analysis of Sudden Stops may provide the key to understanding why some currency/balance of payments crises entail very large output losses, while others are frequently followed by expansions. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises, capital inflow reversals, and sudden-stop crises. We find that sudden-stop crises have a large negative, but short-lived, impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises. A currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2-3 percent, while a Sudden Stop reduces output by an additional 6-8 percent in the year of the crisis. The cumulative output loss of a Sudden Stop is even larger, around 13-15 percent over a three-year period. Our model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the ‘Mexican wave’ (such as seen in Mexico in 1995, Turkey in 1994 and elsewhere), and out-of-sample predictions of the model explain the sudden (and seemingly unexpected) collapse in output associated with the 1997-98 Asian Crisis. The empirical results are robust to alternative model specifications, lag structures and using estimation procedures (IV and GMM) that correct for bias associated with simultaneity and estimation of dynamic panel models with country-specific effects.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 02-03.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:02-03

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Keywords: Financial crises - Mexico ; Developing countries;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Bleaney, & Liliana Castilleja Vargas, . "Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers 07/12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises--An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/258, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Mauro Mecagni, 2009. "The Persistence of Capital Account Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/103, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sula, Ozan, 2006. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 383, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]    ," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Managing New-Style Currency Crises: The Swan Diagram Approach Revisited," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0517, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
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