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Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies

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Author Info
Reuven Glick
Michael Hutchison

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Abstract

A large literature on the appropriate sequencing of financial liberalization suggests that removing capital controls prematurely may contribute to currency instability. This paper investigates whether legal restrictions on international capital flows are associated with greater currency stability. We employ a comprehensive panel data set of 69 developing economies over the 1975–1997 period, identifying 160 currency crises. We control for macroeconomic, political, and institutional characteristics that influence the probability of a currency crisis, employ alternative measures of restrictions on international payments, and account for possible joint causality between the likelihood of a currency attack and the imposition of capital controls. We find evidence that restrictions on capital flows do not effectively insulate economies from currency problems; rather, countries with less restrictive capital controls and more liberalized regimes appear to be less prone to speculative attacks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 00-05.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, V. 24, no. 3 (April 2005) pp. 387-412
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:00-05

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Developing countries ; Monetary policy;

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  1. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 249-273, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hali J. Edison & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Capital controls during financial crises: the case of Malaysia and Thailand," International Finance Discussion Papers 662, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," NBER Working Papers 7253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23. [Downloadable!]
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Vittorio Grilli, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 95/31, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Reuven GLICK & Michael HUTCHISON, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are The Twins?," Working Papers 012000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Capital Account Liberalization as a Signal," NBER Working Papers 5725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
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