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Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: a challenge for the canonical RBC model

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Author Info
Diego Valderrama

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Abstract

Significant nonlinearities are found in several cyclical components macroeconomic time series across countries. Standard equilibrium models of business cycles successfully explain most first and second moments of these time series. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a model of this class cannot replicate nonlinear features of the data. Applying the Efficient Method of Moments (Gallant and Tauchen, 1996, 2000) methodology to build an algorithm that searches over the models parameter space establishes the parameterization that best allows replication of all statistical properties of the data. The results show that this parameterization captures nonlinearities in investment but fails to account for observed properties of consumption.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2002-13.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2002-13

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometric models;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hinich, Melvin J & Patterson, Douglas M, 1985. "Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 69-77, January.
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  6. Martin Browning & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1999. "Micro Data and General Equilibrium Models," Discussion Papers 99-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  7. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Efficient Method of Moments," Working Papers 02-06, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
  12. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ashley, Richard A & Patterson, Douglas M, 1989. "Linear versus Nonlinear Macroeconomies: A Statistical Test," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-704, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Altu[gbreve], Sumru & Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1999. "Are Technology Shocks Nonlinear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 506-533, December. [Downloadable!]
  22. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:4:p:506-33 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "SNP: A Program for Nonparametric Time Series Analysis. Version 8.4. User's Guide," Working Papers 95-26, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  28. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Idiosyncratic shocks and the role of nonconvexities in plant and aggregate investment dynamics," Working Papers 07-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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