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Testing the significance of calendar effects

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Author Info
Peter Reinhard Hansen
Asger Lunde
James M. Nason

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Abstract

This paper studies tests of calendar effects in equity returns. It is necessary to control for all possible calendar effects to avoid spurious results. The authors contribute to the calendar effects literature and its significance with a test for calendar-specific anomalies that conditions on the nuisance of possible calendar effects. Thus, their approach to test for calendar effects produces robust data-mining results. Unfortunately, attempts to control for a large number of possible calendar effects have the downside of diminishing the power of the test, making it more difficult to detect actual anomalies. The authors show that our test achieves good power properties because it exploits the correlation structure of (excess) returns specific to the calendar effect being studied. We implement the test with bootstrap methods and apply it to stock indices from Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Bootstrap p-values reveal that calendar effects are significant for returns in most of these equity markets, but end-of-the-year effects are predominant. It also appears that, beginning in the late 1980s, calendar effects have diminished except in small-cap stock indices.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2005-02.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2005-02

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dimitar Tonchev & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2004. "Calendar effects in Eastern European financial markets: evidence from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1035-1043, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John C. Frain, 2008. "Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Regression Coefficients with alpha-stable residuals and Day of Week effects in Total Returns on Equity Indices," Trinity Economics Papers tep0108, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised May 2008. [Downloadable!]
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