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Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa

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Author Info
Cheryl Doss () (Yale University)
John McPeak () (Syracuse University)
Christopher Barrett () (Cornell University)

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Abstract

This study investigates variation over time, space and household and individual characteristics in how people perceive different risks. Using original data from the arid and semi-arid lands of east Africa, we explore which risks concern individuals and how they assess their relative level of concern about these identified risks. Because these assessments were gathered for multiple time periods, sites, households and individuals within households, we are able to identify the degree to which risk perceptions vary across time, across communities, across households within a community, and across individuals within a household. We find the primary determinants of risk rankings to be changing community level variables over time, with household specific and individual specific variables exhibiting much less influence. This suggests that community based planning and monitoring of development efforts that address risk exposure should be prioritized. We also find that individuals throughout this area are most concerned about food security overall, so that development efforts that directly address this problem should be given the highest priority.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economic Growth Center, Yale University in its series Working Papers with number 948.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:948

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Related research
Keywords: risk ranking; risk perceptions; intrahousehold; Africa; Kenya; Ethiopia;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lentz, Erin & Barrett, Christopher B., 2004. "Food Aid Targeting, Shocks And Private Transfers Among East African Pastoralists," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model Of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & Susan C. Watkins, 2003. "Social Networks, HIV/AIDS and Risk Perceptions," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Renate Schubert et al., 1999. "Financial Decision-Making: Are Women Really More Risk-Averse?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 381-385, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2007. "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 480-497, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jianakoplos, Nancy Ammon & Bernasek, Alexandra, 1998. "Are Women More Risk Averse?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 620-30, October.
  11. Christine M. Moser & Christopher B. Barrett, 2006. "The complex dynamics of smallholder technology adoption: the case of SRI in Madagascar," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 373-388, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arne Bigsten & Sven Tengstam, 2008. "Smallholder Income Diversification In Zambia: The Way Out Of Poverty?," International Development Collaborative Working Papers ZM-FSRP-WP-31, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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