This paper reproduces Lucas's analysis of the costs of business cycles in an economy with a low probability, crash state in consumption growth. For reasonable parameter values, it is shown that the presence of a crash state dramatically increases the costs of consumption volatility. Specifically, for relative risk aversion around 5, households in the US economy would, in aggregate, pay over $60 billion (approximately 3% of consumption in 2001) to eliminate consumption uncertainty. The conclusion is that stabilization policy is important not for its effects on second moments but in reducing kurtosis by lowering both the probability and severity of a crash state.
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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
05-5.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
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