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Forecasting Inflation in the Netherlands and the Euro Area

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Author Info
A.H.J. den Reijer
P.J.G. Vlaar

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Abstract

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and the aggregated HICP-index itself. Both models are small-scale linear time series models allowing for long run equilibrium relationships between HICP subcomponents and other variables, notably the hourly wage rate and the import prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate Dutch inflation forecasts over an horizon of 11-15 months ahead for the Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). NIPE-forecasts have been generated quarterly by each country in the eurosystem since 1999.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 723.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:723

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Related research
Keywords: inflation; model selection; time series models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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  1. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecasting EMU Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2002. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/21, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On Selecting Policy Analysis Models by Forecast Accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. K. Hubrich, 2001. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does contemponaneous aggregration improve the forecasting performance," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 661, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  10. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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