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International Business Cycle Indicators, Measurement and Forecasting

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Author Info
A.H.J. den Reijer

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Abstract

In this paper the business cycles of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald bandpass filter. Turning points, recession and expansion phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these business cylce indicators. Moreover, the international linkage between two economies is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronism of the two corresponding cyclical motions. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is constructed which replicates and predicts the business cycle. This leading indicator is a single index composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties. The real-time performance of the constructed business cycle indicator for the Netherlands is compared to the performance of a similar indicator based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter methodology.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 689.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:689

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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
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Related research
Keywords: business cylces; turning points; leading indicators; bandpass filter; Forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Anna Maria Agresti & Benoit Mojon, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the Euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. " A leading indicator for the dutch economy: methodological and empirical revision of the cpb system," CPB Discussion Papers 32, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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