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Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing

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Author Info
Jan Willem van den End
Marco Hoeberichts
Mostafa Tabbae

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Abstract

Macro stress-testing has become an important tool to assess financial stability. This paper describes a tool kit for scenario analysis and macro stress-testing. It is based on a model which maps multivariate scenarios to banks' credit and interest rate risks by deterministic and stochastic simulations. Our approach is an extension of existing macro stress-testing models as it distinguishes between probability of default on the one hand and loss given default on the other and allows for separate models for domestic and foreign portfolios. Another contribution of the paper is that the stochastic simulations generate loss distributions which provide insight in the extreme losses and allow for changing correlations between risk factors in stress situations. The methodology is applied to the Dutch banking sector.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 119.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:119

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Related research
Keywords: banking; financial stability; stress-tests; credit risk; interest rate risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," Working Paper Series 6806, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Edward Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2004. "Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 183-208, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Matthew T. Jones & Graham L. Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems: What to Do When the Governor Calls," IMF Working Papers 04/127, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giovanni Majnoni & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Winfrid Blaschke & Matthew T. Jones, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Memmel, Christoph, 2008. "Which interest rate scenario is the worst one for a bank? Evidence from a tracking bank approach for German savings and cooperative banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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