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The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain

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Author Info
Lorenzo Cappellari
Stephen P. Jenkins

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Abstract

We model the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey, waves 1-15. First, we discuss definitions of social assistance benefit receipt, and present information about the trends between 1991 and 2005 in the receipt of social assistance benefits, and in annual rates of transition into and out of receipt. Second, we review potential multivariate modelling approaches especially the dynamic random effects probit models that are used in our empirical analysis and, third, discuss sample selection criteria and explanatory variables. Fourth, we present our regression estimation estimates and interpret them. The final section contains a summary of the substantive results, and highlights some lessons concerning application of the analysis for other countries and some methodological issues.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 828.

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Length: 70 p.
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp828

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Related research
Keywords: social assistance; welfare benefits; dynamic random effects probit; income dynamics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wiji Arulampalam & Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mary Gregory & Miriam Beblo & Wiemer Salverda & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2009. "Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages i1-i10, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jörgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2006. "Immigrant-Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 2261, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jörgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom & Xuelin Zhang, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Francesconi & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2007. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of "In-Work" Benefit Reform for British Lone Mothers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Gregg & Susan Harkness & Sarah Smith, 2009. "Welfare Reform and Lone Parents in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages F38-F65, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jörgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 1999. "Immigrant Assimilation and Welfare Participation: Do Immigrants Assimilate Into or Out-of Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 100, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
  12. Paul Gregg & Jane Waldfogel, 2005. "Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F1-F6, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Enberg, John & Gottschalk, Peter & Wolf, Douglas, 1990. "A random-effects logit model of work-welfare transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 63-75. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B., 2008. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 884, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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