The credit crisis of OECD countries has a negative impact on the growth of the world economy according to a simple error correction model. This causes negative growth effects in poor developing countries. The reduced growth has a direct or indirect impact on the convergence issue, aid, remittances, labour force growth, investment and savings, net foreign debt, migration, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and literacy. We estimate dynamic equations of all these variables using dynamic panel data methods for a panel of countries with per capita income below $1200 (2000). The estimated equations are then integrated to a dynamic system of fourteen equations for fourteen variables that allows for highly non-linear baseline simulations for these open economies. Then we analyze the effects of shocks as predicted by the international organizations for the OECD and world growth for 2008 and 2009. Whereas growth rates return to the baseline scenario very quickly, the GDP per capita returns to its baseline level in OECD countries and the world economy after some years but in poor developing countries it remains below the baseline scenario for more than 200 years. This long run blow to convergence leads to more remittances and emigration, a lower labour force growth, higher shares of GDP for saving, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and investment, and higher literacy. However, all these stabilizing forces through remittances and emigration cannot compensate the losses in levels of growth. Short and medium run effects are driven by a return to baseline for OECD and world GDP growth rates by the end of 2010, but for levels only 10 to 30 years later. Therefore we first get 15 to 20 years of fewer remittances, tax revenues, savings, public expenditure on education, literacy, and investment, more emigration and lower labour force growth.
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Paper provided by United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology in its series UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series with number
026.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
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