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Forecasting New Zealand's Real GDP

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Author Info
Aaron F. Schiff (University of Aukland)
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand's real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz (1978) BIC and the Phillips-Ploberger (1996) PIC criteria. The forecasts generated by the data-determined AR models and an international VAR model are found to be competitive with forecasts from fixed format models and forecasts produced by the NZIER. Two illustrations of the methodology in conditional forecasting settings are performed with the VAR models. The first provides conditional predictions of New Zealand's real GDP when there is a future recession in the United States. The second gives conditional predictions of New Zealand's real GDP under a variety of profiles that allow for tightening in monetary conditions by the Reserve Bank.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d12b/d1278.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1278.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in New Zealand Economic Papers (2000), 34(2): 159-182
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1278

Note: CFP 1020.
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Automated modeling; forecasting; PIC model selection; policy analysis; real GDP;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Models and Forecasts of Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1024, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1999. "Empirical Limits for Time Series Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1220, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  12. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian prediction a response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 351-365, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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