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Crash Risk in Currency Markets

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Author Info
Farhi, Emmanuel
Fraiberger, Samuel P.
Gabaix, Xavier
Rancière, Romain
Verdelhan, Adrien

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Abstract

How much of carry trade excess returns can be explained by the presence of disaster risk? To answer this question, we propose a simple structural model that includes both Gaussian and disaster risk premia and can be estimated even in samples that do not contain disasters. The model points to a novel estimation procedure based on currency options with potentially different strikes. We implement this procedure on a large set of countries over the 1996-2008 period, forming portfolios of hedged and unhedged carry trade excess returns by sorting currencies based on their forward discounts. We find that disaster risk premia account for about 25% of expected carry trade excess returns in advanced countries.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7322.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7322

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Related research
Keywords: carry trade; currency crisis; currency options; disaster risk; exchange rate; financial crisis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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  1. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Akram, Qaisar Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stephen Gilmore & Fumio Hayashi, 2008. "Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2009. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2009-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  12. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters implied by equity index options," NBER Working Papers 15240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. repec:cpr:ceprdp:7416 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Francois Gourio, 2008. "Disasters and Recoveries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 68-73, May. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Bates, David S., 1996. "Dollar jump fears, 1984-1992: distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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