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Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices

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Author Info
Pástor, Luboš
Veronesi, Pietro

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Abstract

During technological revolutions, stock prices of innovative firms tend to exhibit high volatility and bubble-like patterns, which are often attributed to investor irrationality. We develop a general equilibrium model that rationalizes the observed price patterns. The high volatility results from high uncertainty about the average productivity of a new technology. Investors learn about this productivity before deciding whether to adopt the technology on a large scale. For technologies that are ultimately adopted, the nature of uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic as the adoption becomes more likely; as a result, stock prices fall after an initial run-up. This 'bubble' in stock prices is observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and it is most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We examine stock prices in the early days of American railroads, and find evidence consistent with a large-scale adoption of the railroad technology by the late 1850s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5428.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5428

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Related research
Keywords: bubble; innovation; railroads; technology;

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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  3. Efraim Benmelech, 2009. "Asset Salability and Debt Maturity: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century American Railroads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1545-1584, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David, P.A., 1989. "Computer And Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 339, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  9. Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rousseau, Peter L., 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1181-1224 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2003. "Technological Change and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1240-1267, September. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "The PC Industry: New Economy or Early Life-Cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 318-345, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Laitner, John & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2004. "Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 191-233, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harrison Hong & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2007. "Advisors and Asset Prices: A Model of the Origins of Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 13504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michele Moretto & Gianpaolo Rossini, 2007. "Partnerships vs. Firms Entry Strategies," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0049, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  3. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lily Qiu & Gerard Hoberg, 2006. "Growth to Value: A Difficult Journey for IPOs and Concentrated Industries," Working Papers 2005-17, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 12766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robin Greenwood & Stefan Nagel, 2008. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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