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Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest

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Author Info
Rodrigo Fuentes
Fabián Gredig

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Abstract

In this paper we use a set of methods to estimate the neutral interest rate for Chile (NRIR). We group the methods into three categories: methods derived from pure economic theory, the NRIR implicit in the price of financial assets, and the rate estimated from a statistical model using macroeconomic data. We learnt that the neutral interest rate is not a time invariant variable. It is closely related to the potential growth of the economy (but it is not equal to the growth rate of the trended output). The application of all methods yields very similar results. The NRIR would be in a range between 2% and 3.6%, with a median equal to 2.8% with data up to the fourth quarter of 2006

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 448.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:448

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation," Working Paper 2005/14, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2001. "Measuring equilibrium real interest rates: what can we learn from yields on indexed bonds?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  1. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Coble, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel: An Application for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 431, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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