We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean, persistence, and volatility of inflation. We present diverse sources of uncertainty that impinge on the posterior predictive density for inflation, including model uncertainty, policy drift, structural shifts and other shocks. We use a recently developed minimum entropy method to bring outside information to bear on inflation forecasts. We compare our predictive densities with the Bank of England’s fan charts.
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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number
2003/44.
Length: 44 pages Date of creation: 13 Feb 2003 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:cfs:cfswop:wp200344
Note: An earlier version was presented at the research conference "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy" August 2003 sponsored by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (JEDC) and the Center for Financial Studies (CFS). We are grateful to the staff at the Bank of England for their advice and assistance and to Sylvia Kaufmann and Kenneth West for their comments at the CFS-Bundesbank Conference on “Expectations, Learning, and Monetary Policy,” held in Eltville, Germany.on August 30-31, 2003. We are especially grateful to Ellis Tallman for a number of discussions about relative entropy. Contact details of provider: Postal: House of Finance, Gr�neburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050 Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077 Email: Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Birgit Pässler).
Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002.
"Forecasting using relative entropy,"
Working Paper
2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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