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Country Funds and Asymmetric Information

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Author Info
Jeffrey Frankel (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)
Sergio Schmukler (Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

Closed-end country funds trade in New York at their price. Their Net Asset Value (NAV) represent the value of the underlying assets, usually traded in each particular country. If the holders of the underlying assets have more information about local assets than the country fund holders, changes in NAVs will tend to explain future changes in prices but not vice versa. This paper shows that most NAVs appear exogenous; while most prices reject exogeneity. Past changes in NAVs and discounts predict current prices more frequently than prices and discounts predict NAVs. The price (NAV) adjustment coefficients are low and negatively correlated with the local (foreign) market variability--but not with the fund price (NAV) variability. These findings are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information in international capital markets. The appendix introduces a model of asymmetric information, that rationalizes our empirical findings. Different perceived risk makes foreign investors willing to less pay for local assets than domestic investors. Therefore, country fund prices (driven mainly by small U.S. investors) tend to be lower than NAVs (driven mainly by domestic and large foreign investors). Two other propositions are derived. First, since NAVs and prices are linked by a long-run relationship, unusually large past discounts explain current NAVs and prices. Second, the presence of "noise traders" delays the adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium.

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Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1028.

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Date of creation: 02 May 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1028

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Keywords: asymmetric information; country funds; closed-end funds; cost of information; noise traders; cointegration; error-correction model; exogeneity; economics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dennis P J Botman & Cees G H Diks, 2002. "Location of Investors and Capital Flight," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-013/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Daryl Collins & Shãna Gavron, 2004. "Channels of financial market contagion," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2461-2469, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2006. "International financial integration through the law of one price," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3897, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Offshore Investment Funds: Monsters in Emerging Markets?," NBER Working Papers 7133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio, 1999. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises - do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2259, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Marina Halac & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Distributional effects of crises : the role of financial transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3173, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1998. "Country funds and asymmetric information," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1886, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fernando Broner, 2003. "Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises," Economics Working Papers 839, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 511-534, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 5714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Mutual fund investment in emerging markets - an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2529, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Daryl Collins & Shãna Gavron, 2005. "Measuring equity market contagion in multiple financial events," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 531-538, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Marcelo Pinheiro, 2005. "Informational asymmetries and a multiplier effect on price correlation and trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 395-421, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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