Using information contained in forward interest rates, this paper attempts to assess the probability that European Monetary Union (EMU) occurs and that a particular country participates. It is shown that since the Madrid "summit" the public has become increasingly optimistic about the realization of EMU. Furthermore, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium are found to be the most likely candidates for the single currency project.
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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number
382.
Length: pages Date of creation: Jul 1996 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:382
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany Fax: +49 228 73 9221 Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/index.php?id=517
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
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